The September numbers from Ottawa‘s real estate market continue to tell a steady, almost textbook story: sales did their seasonal dip, but prices held firm, and inventory continued to rise. Is that the full story though? Is there more to unpack?
On paper, things are calm and composed. Ottawa has a famously steady market after all. That said, we’ve also been stressing the importance of discussing real estate stats with context…
So let’s start with the September numbers (source: OREB):
- 1,089 homes sold, slightly below August but still up 2.4% YOY
- 4,388 active listings, up nearly 20% YOY and roughly 22% above the five-year average
- 4.0 months of inventory, which sits in the balanced market territory
- Average sale price of $690,397, a 0.3% increase YOY
- Benchmark price of $627,200, a 1.1% increase YOY
Breaking down the benchmark prices by property type:
- Single-family homes came in at $697,200, a 1.0% increase
- Townhomes were the standout at $462,800, a 7.8% increase
- Apartments/condominiums decreased 1.7% to $408,200
Context Matters More Than Ever
Here’s the thing… these stats are often discussed in a vacuum, and we’ve come out of a strange few years. Between inflation, the higher cost of living, and ongoing trade ‘complications’, consumer behaviour and economic variables that tie into the real estate landscape have shifted in subtle but meaningful ways. Also, consider the reports about the federal government potentially reducing the Ottawa-Gatineau public sector workforce by up to 24,000 positions by 2028.
Even if a portion of that happens through attrition, it’s hard to imagine it won’t ripple through the housing market. When you pair that with rising household costs across the board (groceries, fuel, childcare, insurance, etc.), it’s no wonder many buyers and sellers are hesitant. All of these elements shape confidence, which in turn impacts real estate trends. That’s why it’s not enough to look at numbers alone because the numbers don’t live in isolation.
Yes, there’s hesitation. Yes, there’s uncertainty. But that doesn’t automatically mean the market is weakening either. Ottawa’s steady demand and balanced inventory might actually be showing a market adjusting away from the statistical outliers that were the last few years. The Bank of Canada’s consecutive rate cuts in September and October have also injected some optimism into the fall market, helping some first-time buyers re-enter the conversation. Meanwhile, the rise in listings gives buyers more choice that has been sorely missing since 2020.
This combination of more choice, steady demand, and balanced pricing paints a market that’s maturing, not melting.
Balanced Doesn’t Necessarily Mean Predictable
Percentages don’t tell you what’s really happening unless you understand the ecosystem they came from. That’s why “stats in a vacuum” can be a little frustrating. They can make you feel like you’re missing out or misreading your timing because you’re only reacting to a snapshot. Besides, a balanced market may sound and give the illusion of calm, but it’s still full of movement.
Sellers are recalibrating their expectations. Buyers are testing affordability boundaries. And investors are more focused on long-term gains, instead of quick flips. Ottawa’s “boring” reputation of steady growth, moderate prices, and minimal volatility still makes it one of the more resilient housing markets in Canada. But even here, balance doesn’t mean stasis. There are opportunities for those who can see the whole picture, and that’s why we’re here!
At Top Ottawa Homes, we believe stats should inform instead of dictate decisions. Leveraging our REALTOR® experience with the added insight and perspective that comes from hundreds of appraisals, we don’t just rely on numbers. We interpret what’s underneath them, have tangible reference points, and offer client-first guidance that promotes confident actions.
Beyond the Vacuum, Beyond the Numbers
At the end of the day, stats are just tools. The real question to ask is: what do they mean for you? Understanding how your personal goals intersect with market realities is key, regardless of whether you’re buying, selling, or just exploring.
And you don’t have to decode the data alone. Top Ottawa Homes is here to guide you through the entire process. We go beyond the data and help you read between the lines. Because when you see the full story, confident decisions follow naturally.
Curious about what the latest numbers mean for your home or neighbourhood? Let’s talk stats outside the vacuum. Reach out to Top Ottawa Homes today for a clearer perspective!
