As we close the book on 2025, it’s fair to say that Ottawa’s real estate market feels quieter than it did just a year or two ago. Nothing is broken, and there aren’t the same volatile swings happening as seen in other markets. It’s just different and shifting.
Even though Ottawa will end the year with stats and headlines that point to a balanced housing market, that shouldn’t be most people’s takeaway. Real estate doesn’t operate in isolation. It exists within a constellation of economic forces, political decisions, human emotion, and accumulated lived experiences. And if we’re talking about right now, a lot of those factors are pushing and pulling in different directions.
Zooming in on Last Month
Ottawa saw 880 residential sales in November (source: OREB), which was down from 1,177 in October and 18.2% lower than November 2024. It is the seasonal slowdown period, but those are very notable month-over-month and year-over-year drops. That said, Ottawa’s steady market continues to move forward with a 1.5% increase in home sales year-to-date and sale prices increasing by 2.2% compared to 2024.
Prices seem to be telling one story…
- The average sale price in November was $680,496, up 2.2% YOY
- The year-to-date average price of $699,635 is 3.0% higher than the same time last year
- The year-to-date sales volume is over $9 billion, representing a 4.6% increase from 2024
And the supply side shows a different story…
- New listings were down 39% from October but 10% higher than November 2024
- Active listings decreased 12% from October but were 31.3% higher than last year
- Months of inventory rose to 4.2 (still balanced territory), but with disparities by property type: Townhomes 3.1, Single-family = 4.0, Apartment = 7.3
The price gains continue to be driven primarily by single-family homes, up 4.8% from November 2024 and 4% higher year-to-date. But since the inventory and number of sales situations have shifted in the past year, the dollar volume last month ($599 million) is actually down 16.5% year-over-year. Amidst these seemingly opposing dynamics, it is quite safe to say that activity is slowing down and demand is softening.
Zooming Out on the Year
To understand the why behind some of these shifts in demand, we need to zoom out. We need to go beyond real estate stats and incorporate all the things that impact people’s lives. These larger elements affect how people feel, which informs their attitudes, behaviours, and decisions. All of this has tangential and correlative impacts on the real estate market.
Trump, Trade Wars & Tariffs
In its March report, the OECD warned that the escalating trade tensions with the U.S. could result in expected economic growth for the year being cut in half. That warning didn’t exist in isolation. By June, other reports began noting that Canadian home price growth was slowing as trade pressures weighed heavily on people’s minds and wallets, contributing to economic uncertainty.
Trump’s constantly changing but consistently steep tariffs on Canadian exports have also had ripple effects. They disrupted supply chains, increased the cost of goods, and contributed to inflation. When inflation and uncertainty rise, consumer confidence tends to dip. And buying a home is a confidence-based decision. When people aren’t sure what their job, expenses, or the broader economy will look like in a year, they hesitate… or are at least more careful.
Economic Slowdown & Rate Relief
The Bank of Canada cut rates four times in 2025: January 29, March 12, September 17, and October 29. In the real estate context, rate cuts can stimulate demand by lowering borrowing costs and generally improving affordability. But rate cuts don’t exist in a vacuum either, and they don’t override economic anxiety
Federal budgets and economic forecasts throughout the year have shown modest GDP growth, lower exports, and weaker business investment. And since inflation hasn’t disappeared (it’s just accelerating at a slower pace!), the cost of living is still high even if mortgages are more manageable. Households are choosing caution, even when financing is made more accessible.
Employment Anxiety vs. Reality
Here’s where things get interesting. On one hand, the last few jobs reports have surpassed the somewhat dour expectations leading up to them, reinforcing the narrative of economic resilience. On the other hand, Ottawa faces a unique challenge over the next few years: the reduction of tens of thousands of public sector positions in the region.
Even if the reductions happen gradually, they’ll inevitably have a disproportionate impact in a city built on stable government employment. People don’t buy a home based on how they feel today; they buy based on how safe tomorrow feels. With job security potentially in question, buyers slow down, upgrade plans get shelved, and investment decisions become more risk-averse.
The One-Bedroom Condo Question
The most noticeable micro-trend in Ottawa real estate this year has been the volume of one-bedroom condos hitting (and sitting on) the market. Investors who purchased between 2019 and 2021 are now facing mortgage renewals at higher rates and in a different economic environment. Holding costs are up, rental demand has softened, and the math isn’t mathing the way it used to.
At the same time, buyer demand has shifted towards townhomes, duplexes, and single-family homes. The average buyer’s scope has changed from a stepping-stone home to one with longevity. So, although one-bedroom condos don’t have the biggest price tags, demand being in the hands of end-users instead of investors means the market will be less speculative. That’s good for stability, but it often means slower growth and more scrutiny over value.
Looking Ahead to 2026
Compared to the past couple of years, sales volume is down. But prices still trend upward. That means each sale carries more weight, outliers become easy headlines, and people’s individual situations matter most in their decision-making. It also means that pricing correctly doesn’t guarantee you a speedy sale. You can be the best-priced home on the market and still sit for a bit because people are being more selective.
If you’re a buyer, practice patience AND preparedness. The tight timelines and urgency to act might be gone. But when the right property presents itself, it’s prepared buyers who are there first.
Sellers, detach emotion from pricing. Value expectations must be data-driven, and homes might require more effort in terms of their preparation, presentation, and promotion.
If you’re an investor, be selective because risk has increased. That doesn’t mean opportunity has disappeared, but it does mean choosing the right property requires deeper analysis.
And this is where Top Ottawa Homes stands out. Between the access and insight that comes from hundreds of appraisals along with decades of REALTOR® and brokerage expertise, we don’t just recite statistics at you. We interpret them, identify trends and anomalies, understand valuation at the granular level, and then place that all within the context of your situation and goals.
So if you’re looking to make any real estate moves in the new year or want to understand some of the shifts that are occurring and how they relate to you, let’s chat!
