Ottawa’s October real estate stats revealed a mix of familiar stability but with subtle movement occurring beneath the surface. On paper, it appears to be another steady month in a market that resists swinging in a particular direction. But that doesn’t mean we should mistake steady for still…
October almost always brings fewer new listings to the market than September. That’s been a well-established pattern for a decade now. So let’s break down these latest statistics, see what’s actually novel and shifting, and try to understand what it all means as we head toward year-end.
Here are the MLS® Home Price Index numbers coming out of October (source: OREB):
– 1,177 homes sold, a slight decrease of 1.2% YOY but up 8.1% from September
– 2,405 new listings, which is up 13.4% from October 2024 but down 15.1% from last month
– 4,232 active listings and 3.6 months of inventory still represent a balanced market
– Average sale price of $709,002, a 5.7% increase YOY and up 2.7% from September
– Benchmark price of $622,700, a 0.7% increase YOY but down 0.7% from the previous month
Breaking down the benchmark prices further by property type:
– Single-family homes came in at $692,400, a 0.3% increase YOY
– Townhomes were the standout (again) at $456,300, a 6.6% increase YOY
– Apartments/condominiums increased 0.1% to $402,900 YOY
In January through October of this year, 12,197 were sold. This represents a 3.3% increase compared to the first 10 months of last year, with the total dollar volume also going up 6.5%. The dip in active listings, in combination with the expected seasonal slump in new listings, is also interesting. Some think we’re just heading into the winter months, and others speculate that it may indicate the wave of elevated inventory is levelling off.
Pair that with sales rising 8.1% from September and months of inventory dropping from 4.0 to 3.6, and it looks like a subtle tightening in the market. Not enough to declare a swing, but enough velocity to show underlying demand and motivated buyers… when the right property comes along. And this is where nuance matters. Is it a balanced market? Technically speaking, yes. But is it behaving like one? Not exactly.
Resiliency Amidst Uncertainty
Ottawa’s market continues to hold firm even as significant external factors are anything but that. Think high cost of living, lingering inflation, trade and tariff uncertainty, and the reality that the federal government will be shedding tens of thousands of jobs in the Ottawa–Gatineau area over the coming years. Not to mention the larger conversations about slowing growth, consumer fatigue, and affordability pressure.
Yes, the feds say some of those job reductions will happen through attrition. But even then, fewer public sector jobs have consequences because Ottawa’s housing market is rooted in stable, public service sector employment. What shakes the federal workforce pretty much shakes the city, economically speaking. And yet the housing market continues to show resilience with steady prices, balanced inventory, and year-to-date activity up across the board. What gives?
Here’s one of the most interesting trends being observed but not discussed: the stats say balanced market, but the on-the-ground behaviour is starting to look more like a buyer’s market. Buyers are taking their time, exploring more options, and aren’t panicking or feeling pressure to act. The urgency we saw over the last few years has now been replaced with patience and intention.
Meanwhile, sellers are facing a different emotional landscape: more days spent on the market even when priced correctly, fewer showings, more discerning buyers, and the need to detach emotionally from price expectations. And that emotional component is huge. For most people, their home is an extension of their identity. Regardless, pricing must be grounded in data because even the best-priced homes will likely sit on the market longer.
Shifting Away From Condos
One of the clearest signals in the numbers for months now is the weakening performance of one-bedroom condos and small investment units. With lots of these having been purchased three to five years ago, people are facing mortgage renewals at significantly higher rates and are choosing to unload. If this shift continues, and the early signals suggest it will, we’ll likely see it become even clearer in the coming months.
Meanwhile, townhomes (once again) led benchmark appreciation with a year-over-year increase of 6.6%. But assuming patterns will always repeat can lead to mistaking balanced stats for balanced sentiments. Behaviour right now is more buyer-leaning than the numbers currently imply. Overall sales volume is down compared to previous peak years. Which means each sale has more influence, and outliers skew averages more than usual.
So when you look at Ottawa’s market on the macro level, it seems pretty predictable. But assuming stability guarantees more stability risks missing those changing undercurrents. And that’s why context matters. We can’t forget about the generational dynamics that are also at play. Baby Boomers and Gen Xers are staying in their homes longer, even leveraging that equity or acting as cosigners for their kids.
Millennials and older Zoomers who can participate are buying with longevity in mind. Due to the prices, the idea of a “starter home” means something completely different. When your first home purchase is in the ballpark of $700K, it’s hard to see and approach it as a stepping stone. The consumer mindset has shifted towards longevity in this regard.
What Comes Next?
Real estate is a peculiar ballet where ego, emotion, raw data, and money collide. If you’re a buyer, stay patient but also be ready. Yes, we are moving into the slower season. That said, you want to be in the position to act decisively if and when the right home presents itself.
Sellers, on the other hand, detach emotionally and price with data. Make those small improvements that give your home a competitive edge, but start by recognizing that even perfectly priced homes can sit. Buyers can and will be selective in the current landscape.
What else can you do? Work with Top Ottawa Homes! With the added expertise and exposure that come from both the appraisal and realtor sides, we go deeper than surface-level stats and provide you with genuine clarity for your situation.
If you want to understand what the Ottawa numbers mean for you, your neighbourhood, or your next step, reach out! Get the context you need to make confident, informed decisions.
