Everybody loves stats! Well, maybe not, but to make confident real estate decisions, you need to go beyond headlines and gut feelings. It’s no secret that Ottawa has historically experienced very stable real estate activity. Spring tends to bring more listings and sales to the market, summer keeps up that pace, fall slows a bit with a mild uptick or heartbeat before quieting down for the winter. Despite the consistency, there’s recently been a hum of uncertainty…
Yes, the combination of ultra-low interest rates, huge demand, supply chain issues, and buyer urgency during the pandemic years (mainly 2020-2022) created a market that was unlike anything in recent Ottawa history. Since then, things have returned to more predictable trend lines with continued demand, steady growth in sales and prices, alongside increasing supply. Here are some noteworthy OREB stats from July and August that continue to point towards a balanced market with strong fundamentals… at least when compared to other, more volatile ones!
- The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) was 51.7% in July and 58.3% in August (in the middle of the 40-60% range that’s typically considered a balanced market)
- Inventory is also increasing with more active listings compared to a year ago (14% and 13.3% increases from July and August 2024) and relative to the five-year averages (23.6% and 37.1% above the July and August five-year averages) for end-of-summer numbers
- The combination of the sales-to-new-listings ratios and 3.2 months of inventory shows that demand is keeping up with supply, helping maintain the balanced market conditions
Some are asking whether Ottawa is heading towards a correction given broader economic headwinds, and some say we’re already in it. Inflation, high cost of living, concerns about job stability, and global economic uncertainty are all being discussed as potential signals to watch. Economic commentators are increasingly using terms like “recession indicators”, but Ottawa’s housing market has often been described as one that’s “recession-proof”. With its high density of public and tech sector jobs, population growth, lower volatility compared to other cities, and other stabilizing factors, Ottawa has traditionally had a degree of market insulation and resilience.
So, is there any reason to worry?
Patterns Don’t Always Align With Expectations
Although we can’t predict the future, we can have informed expectations. People often perceive and anticipate more dramatic changes than what actually plays out. There’s inherently a delayed response to the patterns in real estate because the market is human-derived and human-driven. People don’t immediately buy or sell a home just because interest rates go down or inflation rises, at least not in a way that’s reflected in market stats. These factors can certainly impact someone’s timing (for example, sellers might wait longer as buyers exercise more choice), but the changes tend to build gradually over time.
Similarly, people sometimes expect rapid price drops or skyrocketing growth because of changing external pressures. A seller might hear about a home in their neighbourhood going for a ridiculously high price and then set that as their new benchmark, instead of scrutinizing it as an outlier first. There are also misconceptions about rising days on market (DOM) stats. But when you pair them with Ottawa’s steady inventory, it’s just a reflection of buyers having more options at their disposal. DOM numbers can rise with growth in overall sales and prices remaining stable.
MLS® Home Price Index for Ottawa in August 2025 (source: OREB)
- Composite benchmark price of $633,000, 1.5% increase YOY
- Single-family home benchmark price of $700,100, 1.5% increase YOY
- Townhouse benchmark price of $466,200, 8.3% increase YOY
- Condo benchmark price of $412,300, 1.1% decrease YOY
Unless supply is significantly outpacing demand (which there’s an argument for with condos), buyers in Ottawa are generally willing to pay for the home they want. They’re just taking their time exploring the available options. Besides, if you’re a seller and your sole priority is money, you shouldn’t be thinking in terms of seasonality anyway. Measuring year-over-year (or over many years) makes more sense because Ottawa’s market consistently sees modest growth.
This isn’t an endorsement of trying to time the market either. It’s simply a statistical recognition that the home will likely be worth more next year. So, if you’re operating purely from a price appreciation perspective, the best advice is always to buy sooner and/or sell later. This alone doesn’t account for most market activity dynamics, so people clearly have other motivators.
Confidence Over Speculation
Seeing the whole picture includes stats, but it also involves understanding their context in tandem with your situation and needs. Let’s be clear, external factors absolutely matter BUT they don’t dictate your path. Your priorities, your financing situation, and so many other potential variables matter more. Just because you’re a participant in the market doesn’t mean your individual situation will be reflected by it. Expectations need to be informed and aligned accordingly.
This is another way of saying your circumstances might be unique compared to the people who are accounting for the majority of the pattern(s) at a given time. If that’s the case, your expectations can’t be the same as someone else’s. What’s important is knowing what you’re trying to do and your reasons for doing it. From there, you can begin to understand and engage strategically with the relevant market stats or dynamics at play. And that’s where we come in!
In the current market, you want to practice patience and make decisions rooted in confidence. Top Ottawa Homes helps provide you with the confidence that comes with clarity! If you’re buying or selling for reasons like comfort, location, and lifestyle, those matter more than getting the perfect market moment. With the current inventory and higher DOM, buyers can be more thorough, which gives them some leverage but also mandates patience on their part.
If supply continues to rise and demand starts to slow, that‘s definitely a signal to monitor. But supply alone doesn’t drive prices down unless there are lots of people selling. All of this highlights how you want to be working with someone who knows the patterns from the anomalies. The insight that comes from seeing and inspecting hundreds of homes a year removes the speculation and guesswork in real estate. We can tell whether a data point is meaningful for you, an exceptional property, or just part of some broader noise.
Top Ottawa Homes is here to spot the patterns and places that matter for you. If you’re looking to go past the numbers that catch headlines and understand the real undercurrents of Ottawa’s market, let’s talk!
