The Truth About Real Estate Market Stats

Market statistics in real estate are an essential tool. They help buyers, sellers, and investors alike understand the bigger picture. But numbers alone don’t tell the whole story, let alone the why behind it. Stats can be used to support almost any narrative depending on how and which ones are presented…

And this is exactly why we’re big on pairing stats with context. So let’s look at how stats can guide you, mislead you, and how to interpret them so you can make smarter decisions!

 

Why Stats Matter

Put simply, market statistics give you a snapshot of what’s happening in real estate. Metrics like sales volume, average sales price, and whether things are leaning towards a buyer’s, seller’s, or balanced market help shape expectations.

Take the following example: Ottawa’s average sale price rose 2.2% year-over-year in July to $695,209. The average year-to-date price for 2025 is now $702,840, representing a 3% increase from 2024 (source: OREB).

The year-over-year statistics compare the average sales price for July and the first seven months of this year with that of July and the first seven months of last year. This provides a similar snapshot of the market within a comparable time frame, an apple-to-apple comparison… right?

On the surface, the statistic suggests stability and modest growth. The trouble is that it can be spun to say it’s a great time to sell OR buy… but it can’t be both since they’re inherently contradictory. In an overall balanced market like Ottawa’s right now, both claims can sound convincing if you look at the stats without context.

 

When Stats Can Mislead

Mark Twain popularized the saying: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” Statistics themselves aren’t dishonest. They’re just numbers. But people can use statistics to back up whatever story they want to tell. In real estate, some agents walk clients through the numbers not to help them truly understand, but to use the stats as leverage to secure their business.

Here’s where things can get murky…

Average vs. benchmark vs. median: Average sale price can be skewed by a few luxury sales or by a wave of cheaper condos. Benchmark reflects a “typical” property, offering steadier trends. The median is the actual middle price point, half the homes sold above it and half below.

Location nuances: In Ottawa, moving just two streets over can dramatically change values. Without accurate, hyper-local comparables, the higher-level numbers can be misleading.

Methodology changes: Changes to the House Price Index methodology by the Canadian Real Estate Association (e.g. removing linking) make historical comparison more difficult. Beyond the fact that past indicators aren’t always future predictors, this change means past trends might not align with more current data.

Manipulated metrics: Days on Market (DOM) can be reset when a listing is withdrawn and re-posted, making it look new. Cumulative Days on Market (CDOM) now tracks total time and there are fines for people re-listing within too short a timeframe. That said, perception can still be skewed and people can just wait a little longer than the timeframe to do a reset.

Outdated data: Markets are dynamic and always changing. In the same vein, data that’s older than six months needs updating. For appraisals, the industry standard is three months. Market conditions can change quickly and stale stats lose their relevance pretty fast.

The bottom line? The stats you see referenced on Reddit or the infographics in the news may have little to do with your property, your neighbourhood, or your market segment without some proper contextualizing.

 

How to Read Stats Smarter

Misunderstanding stats can cost you. You’ll either overpay when you buy or leave money sitting on the table when you sell. Here are some general rules of thumb to help guide you:

Use multiple data points: Of course, stats like sales volume and prices matter. But you need to look at macro stats like average, median, and benchmark prices together to get a fuller, clearer picture. If you’re looking to dive deeper into the numbers and understand what the market stats mean for your situation (and which ones to rely on), we’re always here to help!

Break it down by property type: Detached, townhouse, and condo markets often move at different speeds and are made up of different people. So don’t let one category distort the view of another (e.g. condo townhomes that have additional fees are included in townhomes BUT most people looking in this category aren’t interested in those places… or their fees).

Watch for “story stats”: Low CDOM? Ask if the listing was re-listed. See an unusually high and aberrant sale price? Check if it’s a one-off luxury property. Get your agent to show you concrete examples that give the numbers real weight.

Trust but verify: Pair stats with professional insight. That could mean talking to other agents more familiar with that area, walking through comparable homes with your realtor, or (even better) leveraging the knowledge and extended tool set of a certified residential appraiser like Sheldon, who can help break down what the numbers really mean.

 

The Top Ottawa Homes Advantage

This is where our approach makes a difference. At Top Ottawa Homes, we explain the numbers, challenge them, and put them in the right context for your situation. With our strategic, client-first approach and expertise across the agent, appraisal, and brokering sides of the equation, you get market insight and valuation precision.

That means you won’t be making a big financial decision based on stats that only tell part of the story. You’ll understand the why behind the numbers and how they apply specifically to you. Market statistics are essential, but they’re not gospel. If you want to make confident real estate moves in Ottawa’s evolving market, you need more than just the numbers.

 

You need expertise and local knowledge, which is exactly what Top Ottawa Homes delivers. Reach out to us today!

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